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Mitigating Illusory Results through Preregistration in Education

Summary by: Claire Chuter

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Good researchers thoroughly analyze their data, right? Practices like testing the right covariates, running your analyses in multiple ways to find the best fitting model, screening for outliers, and testing for mediation or moderation effects are indeed important practices… but with a massive caveat. The aggregation of many of these rigorous research practices (as well as some more dubious ones) can lead to what the authors call “illusory results” – results that seem real but are unlikely to be reproduced. In other words, implementation of these common practices (see Figure 1 in the article), often leads researchers to run multiple analytic tests which may unwittingly inflate their chances of stumbling upon a significant finding by chance.

Potential Solutions

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Partially Identified Treatment Effects for Generalizability

Wendy Chan

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Will this intervention work for me?

This is one of the questions that make up the core of generalization research. Generalizations focus on the extent to which the findings of a study apply to people in a different context, in a different time period, or in a different study altogether. In education, one common type of generalization involves examining whether the results of an experiment (e.g., the estimated effect of an intervention) apply to a larger group of people, or a population.

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Bounding, an accessible method for estimating principal causal effects, examined and explained

Luke Miratrix, Jane Furey, Avi Feller, Todd Grindal, and Lindsay Page

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Estimating program effects for subgroups is hard. Estimating effects for types of people who exist in theory, but whom we can’t always identify in practice (i.e., latent subgroups) is harder. These challenges arise often, with noncompliance being a primary example. Another is estimating effects on groups defined by “counterfactual experience,” i.e., by what opportunities would have been available absent treatment access. This paper tackles this difficult problem. We find that if one can predict, with some accuracy, latent subgroup membership, then bounding is a nice evaluation approach, relying on weak assumptions. This is in contrast to many alternatives that are tricky, often unstable, and/or rely on heroic assumptions.

What are latent subgroups again?

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The Implications of Teacher Selection and the Teacher Effect in Individually Randomized Group Treatment Trials

Michael Weiss

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Beware! Teacher effects could mess up your individually randomized trial! Or such is the message of this paper focusing on what happens if you have individual randomization, but teachers are not randomly assigned to experimental groups.

The key idea is that if your experimental groups are systematically different in teacher quality, you will be estimating a combined impact of getting a good/bad teacher on top of the impact of your intervention.

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